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Just as Wall Street appeared to come to terms with the idea of high interest rates sticking around for longer, a cooler-than-expected jobs report on Friday brought the idea of rate cuts back into the conversation. The Labor Department reported that job and wage growth in April came in lower than economists had expected, a shift after months of piping-hot labor market reports. The findings rekindled hopes that the Federal Reserve — which has been looking for signs that interest rates are slowing the economy — may yet cut rates before the end of the year. “This is the jobs report the Fed would have scripted,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. The S&P 500 rose 1.3 percent on Friday, its best day in more than two months.

Persons: ”, Seema Shah, Russell Organizations: Labor Department, Federal, Asset Management

☆ Dow drops by nearly 500 points after a surprisingly bad inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —US stocks fell sharply Wednesday morning after inflation data for March came in higher than expected. That’s up considerably from February’s 3.2% rate and marks the highest annual gain in the past six months. Investors worry this will push back the Fed’s timeline for the rate cuts it has been hinting would come this year. The 10-year Treasury yield, which serves as a standard for mortgage and loan rates, surged after the announcement, approaching 4.5%. Shares of bank stocks fell.

Persons: Dow, “ Today’s, ”, Seema Shah, Wells Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Asset Management, Treasury, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, Apple Locations: New York, Wells Fargo

☆ Wall Street Shudders on Signs of Unexpectedly Strong Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Joe Rennison | More About Joe Rennison | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Signs of stubborn inflation rattled Wall Street on Wednesday, with stock prices sliding and government bond yields, which underpin interest rates throughout the economy, jolting higher. Other major indexes, including the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies, also fell. The moves followed a consumer inflation report that came in hotter than expected, with prices rising 3.5 percent in March from a year earlier, marking another month of stubbornly high inflation. That made it harder for investors to dismiss earlier signs that the progress in cooling inflation was patchy. “The stalled disinflationary narrative can no longer be called a blip,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.

Persons: Russell, ”, Seema Shah Organizations: Nasdaq, Asset Management

☆ Fed caution may be justified if the labor market starts to deteriorate. Here's why that could happen
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

A strong jobs outlook raises the potential of greater inflation pressures, meaning the central bank might be less eager to ease policy. Indeed, there are some signs that the labor market's strength may not be as robust as the headline nonfarm payrolls numbers indicate. Economists both on Wall Street and at the Fed suspect swelling immigration numbers are playing a role in boosting employment and keeping the labor market so tight. With political clamoring intensifying for the U.S. to tighten its border controls, the resilience of the labor market then could be jeopardized depending on how large a role immigration is playing. "Another strong report raises the potential that the deterioration in labor markets we have been expecting will be avoided.

Persons: nonfarm, Seema Shah, Shah, Mohamed El, There's, Goldman Sachs, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Asset Management, Allianz, Fed, CNBC, Wall, Congressional, Citigroup, Citi Locations: it's, Italy, U.S, South America, Central America, Mexico

☆ Expect tech to continue to benefit from secular tailwinds: Principal's Seema Shah
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect tech to continue to benefit from secular tailwinds: Principal's Seema ShahSeema Shah, Principal Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss what fuels the rally in the year's second half, how much rate cuts matter to equities, and the strategist's stance towards small-cap stocks.

Persons: Principal's Seema Shah Seema Shah Organizations: Asset Management

☆ Super Bowl 2024: Online superstore Temu doubles down with TV ad and $15 million in giveaways
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-12 | by ( Juliana Liu | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN —A year after making its advertising debut at the Super Bowl, Chinese-backed online shopping platform Temu is redoubling efforts in its most important market with a second ad on America’s biggest stage and $15 million in coupons and other giveaways. The Boston-based firm — owned by PDD (PDD), the group behind Chinese online shopping giant Pinduoduo — paid for three ads during the game and two after the game. Commercials for the 2024 Super Bowl sold for higher rates than for last year’s game, with a range of $6.5 million to $7 million per 30-second spot broadcast on TV channel CBS, two individuals familiar with this year’s advertising sales told CNN. “The commercial marks the highlight of a Super Bowl campaign that featured more than $15 million in coupons and giveaways,” Temu said in a statement. As a result, PDD’s market capitalization soared that month, eclipsing that of older e-commerce rival Alibaba (BABA) for the first time.

Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, ”, ” Temu, Seema Shah, ” Shah, “, Temu, spender, Earnest Analytics, PDD, Alibaba, Alibaba’s, Jack Ma Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Super Bowl, PDD, CBS, CNN, Bowl, Amazon, Super, Facebook, Dollar Locations: China, Hong Kong, Boston, United States, United Kingdom, Mexico, Germany, Australia

☆ Consumer prices rose 0.3% in December, higher than expected, pushing the annual rate to 3.4%
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The consumer price index increased 0.3% for the month, higher than the 0.2% estimate at a time when most economists and policymakers see inflationary pressures easing. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI also rose 0.3% for the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.8%. On annual basis, shelter costs increased 6.2%, or about two-thirds of the rise in inflation. Food prices increased 0.2% in December, the same as in November. "Certainly, as long as shelter inflation remains stubbornly elevated, the Fed will keep pushing back at the idea of imminent rate cuts."

Persons: Dow Jones, Seema Shah Organizations: Labor Department, Energy, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Fed, Asset Management Locations: U.S

☆ Rate cut expectations for next year have gone too far, says Seema Shah
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRate cut expectations for next year have gone too far, says Seema ShahSeema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, discusses the markets and potential for a recession.

Persons: Seema Shah Seema Shah Organizations: Global, Asset Management

☆ Investors are underpricing a risk of inflation resurgence: Principal Asset Management
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors are underpricing a risk of inflation resurgence: Principal Asset ManagementSeema Shah from Principal Global Advisors shares her investment strategy for various asset classes, making the case for building fixed income portfolio giving the current yield level and growth outlook.

Persons: Seema Shah Organizations: Global Advisors

☆ Are US Treasurys still a safe-haven asset? An epic bond-market crash and rising default fears are sowing doubts.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Financial markets have been engaged in a growing debate over the risks that lurk in Treasurys, with prominent voices raising doubts. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn March, a Richard Bernstein Advisors note said spreads on credit default swaps have climbed for Treasurys since since 2011, when the federal government was issued its first credit downgrade. Then came this spring's debt-ceiling drama and the US credit downgrade in August from Fitch, which cited the rising debt burden and political dysfunction. If a downgrade follows, then US debt wouldn't be in the safest category for default risk at any of the three major ratings agencies. Several auctions for long-dated Treasurys have seen weak demand, and buyers are demanding higher compensation for the risk of carrying Treasurys.

Persons: —, Moody's, they've, Mohamed El, Erian, Asset's Seema Shah, Treasurys, Richard Bernstein, Gennadiy Goldberg isn't Organizations: Service, Federal, CNBC, Dallas Federal, Richard Bernstein Advisors, Fitch, Penn Wharton Budget, Securities Locations: Treasurys, there's, US

☆ Asia shares, bonds rally as Powell feeds hopes of end to rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) surged 1.7% to the highest level in one week. Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) gained 1.4% to cross the 32,000 level for the first time in two weeks. EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.8% early in Asia, while S&P 500 futures added 0.3% and Nasdaq futures increased 0.5%. While Chair Jerome Powell did not rule out another hike, markets judged he was not quite as hawkish as he might have been. Brent crude futures climbed 1.2% to $85.61 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were at $81.43 a barrel, up 1.2%.

Persons: nonfarm payrolls, Hong, HSI, Jerome Powell, Treasuries, Tiffany Wilding, Seema Shah, Stella Qiu, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: Apple, SYDNEY, Tokyo's Nikkei, Stock, Nasdaq, Fed, Treasury, PIMCO, Global, Asset Management, Bank of Japan, East, Brent, West Texas, Thomson Locations: Cupertino California, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Europe, U.S, 4Q24

☆ Shah: Better to lock in rates on the longer end of the Treasury curve than the short end
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailShah: Better to lock in rates on the longer end of the Treasury curve than the short endSeema Shah, Chief Strategist at Principal Asset Management, discusses the narrative driving the markets right now.

Persons: Seema Shah Organizations: Asset Management

☆ Premarket stocks: It’s a spooky Halloween for markets. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Here’s what’s causing the market fears:High bond yieldsSurging yields have contributed to one of the worst periods for bond market performance in history and pressured equity markets. The company reported quarterly profits of $9.9 billion, also beating estimates. Shares of Meta slid last week after the Facebook parent company reported that advertising revenue had been soft this quarter. Jerominski told CNN that there have been at least 25 store closures. Fraser Engerman, a Walgreens spokesperson, told CNN that just two stores closed on Monday and no more than 12 pharmacists walked out across the entire country.

Persons: Dow, Rob Almeida, ”, Jason Pride, “, don’t, Erik Weisman, Seema Shah, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Wall, Shane Jerominski, Jerominski, Fraser Engerman, Max —, Tim Cook, Apple Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, Traders, Nasdaq, MFS Investment Management, Federal Reserve, Asset Management, LPL Research, JPMorgan, Big Tech, Meta, Facebook, Reality Labs, Google, CVS, Walgreens, Staff, CNN, Workers, Apple Locations: New York, United States, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, China, Arizona , Washington , Massachusetts, Oregon, Southern California, Chicago, Deerfield, Apple’s Cupertino , California

☆ Surging rents lift US consumer prices; underlying inflation grinding lower
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The so-called core CPI was also lifted by a 3.7% rise in the cost of lodging away from home, which ended three straight monthly declines. The core CPI gained 4.1% on a year-on-year basis in September, the smallest rise since September 2021, after advancing 4.3% in August. Over the last three months, the core CPI increased 3.1%. Still-strong demand in the economy, marked by labor market tightness, which is driving core services inflation excluding rents, imply that the higher rates could last for some time. Reuters GraphicsThere is no sign yet that the United Auto Workers (UAW)strike, now in its fourth week, is having a major impact on the labor market.

Persons: Olu Sonola, Stephen Juneau, Bing Guan, Seema Shah, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Higher U.S, Treasury, Fitch, CPI, Reuters, Bank of America Securities, Mobil, REUTERS, Fed, Financial, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Beverly Boulevard, West Hollywood , California

☆ US consumer prices rise on surge in rents; underlying inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gasoline prices rose 2.1% after accelerating 10.6% in August. Year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Reuters GraphicsExcluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3%, matching August's gain. Still-strong demand in the economy, marked by labor market resilience, suggests borrowing costs could remain elevated for some time. Reuters GraphicsThere is no sign yet that the United Auto Workers (UAW)strike, now in its fourth week, is having a major impact on the labor market.

Persons: Bing Guan, Olu Sonola, Seema Shah, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Mobil, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Higher U.S, Treasury, Fitch, CPI, Reuters, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Beverly Boulevard, West Hollywood , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York

☆ Shah: Equities won't continue their previous rally until bond yields see downward pressure
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailShah: Equities won't continue their previous rally until bond yields see downward pressureSeema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, discusses what's driving the markets lower and where she'd allocate assets in her portfolio.

Persons: Seema Shah Organizations: Global, Asset Management

☆ Central bank interest rates: Is the global fight to tame inflation nearly over?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

London CNN —Central bankers have had to climb a metaphoric mountain over the past two years in the battle to control runaway inflation. The announcement came just hours after Switzerland’s central bank kept rates unchanged and a day after the US Federal Reserve did the same, holding its key lending rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. “Central banks think they have raised interest rates enough to bring inflation down to their 2% targets in a couple of years’ time,” Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, told CNN. Key interest rates are now at levels that, if “maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution” to reducing inflation to its 2% target, the central bank said. “By this time next year, we anticipate that 21 out of the world’s 30 major central banks will be cutting interest rates.”

Persons: ” Paul Dales, “, Jerome Powell, Sarah Silbiger, Brent, Andrew Bailey, ” Seema Shah, ”, J.P, Morgan, Jennifer McKeown Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of England, US Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, CNN, European Central Bank, ECB, Federal, Washington DC, Bloomberg, Getty, European Union, EU, European Commission, Asset Management, “ Locations: United Kingdom, United States, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ The case for owning stocks over bonds is crumbling
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —The allure of owning stocks over less risky investments is at its lowest level in decades, according to one measure, despite the equity market’s race upward this year. At the same time, hot economic data has helped push Treasury yields higher in recent months. Treasury bonds are generally seen as safer investments than stocks, since they’re issued by the US government, which has never defaulted on its debt. One way to calculate that premium is by subtracting the estimated return on nearly risk-free bonds from that of stocks: in this case, the spread between the S&P 500 index earnings yield and 10-year Treasury yield. The bigger question might be: Why did Swift decide to release her highly anticipated film in theaters over a streaming service?

Persons: Bonds, they’re, Treasuries, ”, Seema Shah, Shah, Taylor Swift, Swift, Read, Bryan Mena Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, Treasury, Asset Management, Stocks, Federal Reserve, AMC Theaters Locations: Taylor, North America

An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes, at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China October 25, 2022. "It's pretty weak," said Sat Duhra, a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson who devises a macro score for countries by tracking seven factors including PMI surveys, real exchange rates, current accounts, growth estimates and liquidity. Even in Japan, the stock market success story of the year so far, portfolio manager Zuhair Khan at UBP Investments says he's shorting or avoiding companies reliant on China sales. However, I think more importantly, it has fallen short of initial expectations," said Jagdeep Ghuman, a portfolio manager for U.S. asset manager Nuveen. Reporting by Tom Westbrook and Rae Wee in Singapore, Dhara Ranasinghe in London and Summer Zhen and Xie Yu in Hong Kong.

Persons: Aly, Janus Henderson, Seema Shah, Zuhair Khan, Prashant Bhayani, it's, Jagdeep Ghuman, Nuveen, Tom Westbrook, Rae Wee, Dhara, Zhen, Xie Yu, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, BHP, PMI, Global Investors, UBP Investments, Vegas Sands, Wealth Management, U.S, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, Rights SINGAPORE, London, Bangkok, Zealand, Europe, Thailand, Asia, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong

REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG/AMSTERDAM, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Global investors fleeing China have one simple message for the country's leadership: put prudence aside for a short while, and start spending big. "At this point there is confusion and, as long as there is confusion, then there's lack of credibility and that means investors are more likely to stay away," said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors in London. Prominent examples are heavy Chinese government spending during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and its swift intervention during the 2015 market crash. But the subsidies need to come from local governments, many of which are cash-strapped or even drowning in debt and unable to pay their civil servants. The lack of concrete stimulus measures now is prompting many China watchers to downgrade their growth estimates for the next few years.

Persons: Aly, China's, Seema Shah, Chen Zhao, Zhao, hasn't, Frederik Ducrozet, Ducrozet, Principal's Shah, Yan Wang, Xi Jinping's, we’ve, Lorraine Tan, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Yoruk, Xie Yu, Ankur Banerjee, Tom Westbrook, Li Gu, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Global, Global Investors, policymaking Politburo, Pictet Wealth Management, Local, UBS Bank, Federated Hermes, Foreigners, Asia, Morningstar, Thomson Locations: Huangpu, Shanghai, China, HONG KONG, AMSTERDAM, London, Beijing, Japan, United States, New York, Amsterdam, Hong Kong, Singapore

☆ Stocks, yields rise as traders balance China, oil supply
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

While disappointment sent Asian shares lower, European shares rose on Monday and U.S. stock futures also pointed to a recovery there. ,Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index was up 0.7% by 1207 GMT, following last week's 2.3% drop, with energy companies outperforming as oil prices rose with tightening supply from Saudi Arabia offsetting demand concerns. Oil prices rose as much as $1 after snapping a seven-week winning streak last week on concerns about Chinese demand. Bond yields move inversely with prices. The ascent of the dollar and yields was weighing on gold at $1,894 an ounce , after it touched a five-month low last week.

Persons: Fed's Jackson, Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown, Europe's, Brent, Jerome, Powell, Seema Shah, Jackson, Nvidia, Yoruk Bahceli, Wayne Cole, Dhara Ranasinghe, David Evans, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Treasury, Hargreaves, Global, U.S . Federal, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, China, Saudi Arabia, U.S ., Atlanta

☆ The tried and true 60/40 portfolio is making a comeback this year after cratering in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The balanced portfolio — reported by many to have died in 2022 — is experiencing a revival. The iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF (AOR) that mimics the strategy lost 15.6% in 2022, including reinvested dividends. Investors sitting tight were rewarded, however, as 2023's run-up in stocks helped lift the 60/40 model. "And thanks to higher interest rates, investors are getting much higher compensation for taking interest rate risk compared to 2021-2022." A 60/40 portfolio isn't right for all investors and their situations, but it does create a foundation for sound investments, said Preston Cherry, CFP and founder of Concurrent Financial Planning.

Persons: —, Seema Shah, Ryan Salah, Salah, US6M, Preston Cherry, bode, Cherry Organizations: Asset Management, Capital Financial Partners, Federal, CFP, CNBC

☆ We expect pricing pressure headwinds to build up going into 2024, says Principal Asset's Seema Shah
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe expect pricing pressure headwinds to build up going into 2024, says Principal Asset's Seema ShahSeema Shah, Principal Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, earnings season, consumer trends, and more.

Persons: Asset's Seema Shah Seema Shah Organizations: Asset Management

☆ Two market watchers discuss the path forward for inflation and the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo market watchers discuss the path forward for inflation and the economySeema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, and Anneka Treon, Chief Economist at Van Lanschot Kempen, discusses CPI and PPI, as well as where to invest in the markets.

Persons: Seema Shah, Anneka Treon, Van Lanschot Kempen Organizations: Global, Asset Management, CPI, PPI Locations: Van

☆ VIEW Bank of England raises rates for a 14th time
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The BoE raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% and said high inflation meant it was unlikely to stop raising rates any time soon. However, with Thursday's decision, traders began to price in a lower peak in UK rates. MONEY MARKETS: Interest-rate derivatives showed traders believe UK rates will peak around 5.67% by March, compared with an expected peak of 5.73% in the run-up to the decision. Rising interest rates means higher borrowing costs, which will lead to larger monthly mortgage payments for many homeowners." The Bank of England remains committed to bringing inflation down, unfortunately raising interest rates is one of the only tools the Bank can use to sap demand out of the economy."

Persons: BoE, Sterling, VIVEK PAUL, we’ll, STUART COLE, JEREMY BATSTONE, CARR, RAYMOND JAMES, MARCUS BROOKES, ” SEEMA SHAH, Rishi Sunak, GILES COGHLAN, THOMAS PUGH, JOHN LEIPER, Amanda Cooper, Samuel Indyk Organizations: Bank of England, FTSE, BLACKROCK, LONDON, TOM HOPKINS, Bank of, RSM, Bank, EMEA, Thomson Locations: LONDON, EUROPEAN, U.S

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